My research focuses on how population structure, social behaviour and immunity shape infectious disease transmission, and how knowledge of such processes can improve surveillance and control measures. This work covers infections that occassionally spill over from animals into human populations—such as monkeypox, Ebola and avian influenza—as well as established like seasonal influenza and dengue fever.

I use a range of mathematical and statistical methods in my work, including branching processes, dynamical systems, network theory, and inference techniques such as data augmentation, Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov chain Monte Carlo.

Some of the research questions I am currently working on:

  • Which factors influence the transmission and containment of emerging infectious diseases?
  • What can individuals' immune responses today tell us about past infections?
  • How can we use data from a limited number of small outbreaks to assess epidemic risk?
  • What type of social contacts drive disease transmission, and how can we measure them?




Identifying human encounters that shape the transmission of streptococcus pneumoniae and other respiratory infections

Characteristics of human encounters and social mixing patterns relevant to infectious diseases spread by close contact: a survey in southwest Uganda

The impact of control strategies and behavioural changes on the elimination of Ebola from Lofa County, Liberia

Reducing uncertainty about flavivirus infections


Real-time dynamic modelling for the design of a cluster-randomized phase 3 Ebola vaccine trial in Sierra Leone

Comparative analysis of dengue and Zika outbreaks reveals differences by setting and virus

Real-time forecasting of infectious disease dynamics with a stochastic semi-mechanistic model

Study epidemiology of fake news

Low risk of a sexually-transmitted Zika virus outbreak

Transmission dynamics of Zika virus in island populations: a modelling analysis of the 2013–14 French Polynesia outbreak

The effect of community-based prevention and care on Ebola transmission in Sierra Leone


Estimating the probability of demonstrating vaccine efficacy in the declining Ebola epidemic: a Bayesian modelling approach

Duration of Ebola virus RNA persistence in semen of survivors: population-level estimates and projections

Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 1976-2014

Effectiveness of ring vaccination as control strategy for Ebola virus disease

Measuring the impact of Ebola control measures in Sierra Leone

The role of superspreading in Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) transmission

School’s Out: Seasonal Variation in the Movement Patterns of School Children

Characterizing the Transmission Potential of Zoonotic Infections from Minor Outbreaks

Transmission Potential of Influenza A(H7N9) Virus, China, 2013–2014

Capturing the dynamics of pathogens with many strains

Estimating the life course of influenza A(H3N2) antibody responses from cross-sectional data

Effectiveness of traveller screening for emerging pathogens is shaped by epidemiology and natural history of infection

Temporal changes in Ebola transmission in Sierra Leone and implications for control requirements: a real-time modelling study


Evaluation of the Benefits and Risks of Introducing Ebola Community Care Centers, Sierra Leone

Five challenges in modelling interacting strain dynamics

Potential for large outbreaks of Ebola virus disease

Case fatality rate for Ebola virus disease in west Africa

Cross-immunity and age patterns of influenza A(H5N1) infection

The contribution of social behaviour to the transmission of influenza A in a human population

Distinguishing Between Reservoir Exposure and Human-to-Human Transmission for Emerging Pathogens Using Case Onset Data


Influenza emergence in the face of evolutionary constraints